Chelsea were aware as early as October that signing a new striker might need to be their top priority in the January transfer window, even if it was startling to hear head coach Mauricio Pochettino articulate it in such stark terms after the dispiriting 2-0 loss away to Everton on Sunday.
Nicolas Jackson’s flaws have been glaring in recent weeks, and understandable for a 22-year-old who has less than a year’s experience as a full-time centre-forward to steady him.
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Armando Broja has brought much of the positive industry he displayed before his anterior cruciate ligament injury, but the Cobham graduate is yet to prove he can carry the consistent goal threat needed to lead Chelsea.
Building a serious challenge for a Premier League top-five finish around either of them required the kind of developmental leap that cannot be relied upon and has not yet come to pass, particularly in the absence of Christopher Nkunku, who was expected to be the star of Chelsea’s new-look attack on arrival from RB Leipzig in the summer.
Now, as January looms, the ownership group led by Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital find themselves in a familiar position in trying to bolster a deficient squad by acquiring some of the most coveted talent in the world. Doing so will require them, once again, to negotiate from a position of profound weakness.
Nkunku is back in training (Matthew Ashton – AMA/Getty Images)That was the backdrop to the first three transfer windows of their ownership, which featured a total outlay of around £1billion ($1.3bn) in transfer fees and several high-profile deals which look like egregious overpays. That Chelsea are still flawed on the pitch after such lavish expense should provide a warning as to the danger of going big again in the winter market.
Victor Osimhen seems to be the most proven No 9 who might be attainable in January, given the uneasiness of his relationship with Napoli and he is entering the final 18 months of his contract. But at what price would owner Aurelio De Laurentiis, a notoriously tough negotiator, consider parting with the striker who fired his club to a historic Serie A title triumph last season?
Buying players at the top of their market value is not a smart or sustainable strategy, particularly since so much of individual success in football is dependent on the team context. Enzo Fernandez and Moises Caicedo are outstanding midfielders, but neither has been able to impact winning to the level of their transfer valuations in a Chelsea team still searching for coherence and consistency.
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Truly exceptional attackers might be the single most difficult thing to acquire and their exceptional status is rarely obvious when they arrive.
Manchester City might have done the ultimate no-brainer deal to get Erling Haaland, but Liverpool did not expect Mohamed Salah to be transformational when they signed him from Roma in 2017. Son Heung-min has exceeded every possible expectation since arriving at Tottenham Hotspur from Bayer Leverkusen for £22million in 2015. Bukayo Saka was not considered a generational talent for much of his journey through Arsenal’s academy.
The nature of Chelsea’s large-scale youth experiment means they may have such an attacker already on their books; one who simply needs the time and conditions to develop. Mykhailo Mudryk is a superstar athlete who lacks tactical experience at this level of football. Jackson’s potential for future growth is underlined by the fact that his 0.71 non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per 90 minutes ranks fourth in the Premier League this season. For context, Haaland’s is 0.81.
Then there is the imminent return of Nkunku, who had established himself as the hub of Pochettino’s attack from his starting position in Chelsea’s pre-season tour of the United States before injuring his knee in the final friendly against Borussia Dortmund. With his positional versatility and rounded skill set, he could provide a reliable source of goals and be the rising tide that lifts the less-varnished boats around him.
Pochettino knows Jackson needs time to adapt (Clive Rose/Getty Images)But he could also be yet another prolific Bundesliga attacker who struggles to replicate his production in the Premier League. Or he could be anything in between. Chelsea have no way of knowing yet, which is a sub-optimal position to be in when the cost of signing a proven striker (such as Osimhen) in January may well require a nine-figure fee.
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Even if such a deal could be agreed and the attacker Chelsea target is everything they believe him to be, why would they represent his best career option? We are now more than a year into Premier League mid-table mediocrity being the new reality at Stamford Bridge, with no prospect of significant European football returning in 2023-24.
Elite footballers heading into the prime years of their careers tend to choose to join elite clubs — and the longer the pain of this rebuild goes, the more difficult it becomes for Boehly and Clearlake to present Chelsea as such.
The appetite to sign another attacker in January — voiced with a greater tone of urgency by Pochettino after the Everton loss — simply invites more questions. Chelsea right now are a case study of the risks of assuming the transfer market can solve your problems, even with huge financial resources.
Doing nothing in January would be a bold new approach for Boehly and Clearlake. It may be the more sensible path.
(Top photo: Chris Lee – Chelsea FC/Chelsea FC via Getty Images)
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